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chicokc's review
4.0
El libro danza sobre el futuro. Aquellos acontecimientos próximos para todos y el universo. No dudaría que la idea inicial de Matrix saliera de este libro.
themushroomalien's review
5.0
This is one of the most interesting books I’ve ever read. Written 7 years before Neil Armstrong took his “one giant leap,” this book is filled with chapters predicting what might be possible in the future. It is both eerie and spectacular that most of Clarke’s predictions have come true. With the invention of the iPhone his prediction of small, handheld computers that run our lives has come to pass. He talks of artificial intelligence, cloning, lab grown biological substances, space travel and so much more.
In contrast, there are some things that he has stated are impossible that have come true. I think it is naïve for humans to say that certain things are impossible. If it can be imagined, it can usually be created. We may not have all the tools necessary to make these magical dreams a reality, but someday we will.
“They will have time enough, and those, aeons, to attempt all things, and to gather all knowledge. They will not be like gods, because no gods imagined by our minds have ever possessed the powers they will command. But for
all that, they may envy us, basking in the bright afterglow of creation; for we knew the universe when it was young.”
In contrast, there are some things that he has stated are impossible that have come true. I think it is naïve for humans to say that certain things are impossible. If it can be imagined, it can usually be created. We may not have all the tools necessary to make these magical dreams a reality, but someday we will.
“They will have time enough, and those, aeons, to attempt all things, and to gather all knowledge. They will not be like gods, because no gods imagined by our minds have ever possessed the powers they will command. But for
all that, they may envy us, basking in the bright afterglow of creation; for we knew the universe when it was young.”
phileasfogg's review against another edition
4.0
A series of essays of and about forecasts of future technology.
The essays were originally written for Playboy in 1961, and were then collected into the original 1962 version of this book. Clarke revised the book in 1973, 1982 and 1999. I read the 1982 version not long after it was published and found it stimulating. On reading the 1999 edition, I have been surprised to learn that some of my ideas for my own extreme-far-future sf novel were not my own thoughts, as I had thought, but ideas I'd forgotten I'd read in the 1982 edition of this book.
The 1999 edition is, according to the acknowledgements, a revision of the original 1962 edition; though a quick glance through my 1980s copy indicates that some of the revisions for that edition have found their way back into this one. Presumably Clarke had it on hand while creating this edition, and added again the bits he thought worthy.
It contains some very interesting thoughts. Clarke's famous 'laws' are spelled out in this book--number one has been politically corrected for this edition:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible (s)he is almost certainly right. When (s)he says it is impossible, (s)he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Law 2 seems a bit glib, but 1 and 3 have a lot going for them.
The core idea of the book is that, if we want it enough, we will develop any technology we can imagine, so long as its operation need not contradict the laws of physics. Many foolish statements regarding the impossibility of various imagined technologies--heavier-than-air flight and space flight, for instance--arose from the financial and engineering difficulties involved in developing such technologies. But we wanted those technologies enough to find a way.
From this premise Clarke makes some striking predictions, of which I mention only a few:
- It will some day be possible to travel anywhere on Earth virtually instantaneously. That's a technology we will always want and there's no natural law that says we can't.
- Slightly more controversially, he imagines that in the more distant future we may be able to travel anywhere in the universe virtually instantaneously, by travelling in directions other than the three we currently know of; the indisputable speed limit of the universe is applicable to the space-time we know of, but not necessarily to other kinds of space we may gain access to in future.
- He imagines that we will be able to observe the past in perfect detail, but not to travel there.
- And that we will be able to go virtually anywhere in the universe, except inside stars, and planets with molten cores.
Many of these statements no doubt seem absurd in our present world. But the present state of affairs is just an instant in time, and need not be representative of the millions of future years in which human beings might exist. These speculations may apply not to our own civilisation, but perhaps to our remote descendants in more ambitious and better run civilisations.
Clarke's subtitle and introduction state that his intention is to explore 'the limits of the possible': in other words, not to predict the future, but to determine what we could achieve if we wanted to. What we actually achieve depends on what we want, and that arises from cultural factors that are virtually impossible to predict. The essays are at their weakest and their strongest when he oversteps this scope, and makes specific predictions.
He has retained an essay from the original edition, with amusing new pre- and post-scripts, to illustrate his own point about the 'hazards of prophecy': the one where he predicts that the hovercraft will have replaced the wheeled automobile by about 2010. I enjoyed the postscript where he writes about how he put his money where his mouth was and bought a hovercraft, and discovered its limitations. The specifically hovercraft-oriented aspects of the essay are plainly wrong, but some of the ideas--the obsolescence of the highway, the challenge of conducting search and rescue operations in extreme locations, and the difficulty of maintaining private spaces when anyone can drive over a fence--would still be applicable if ever flying cars became popular. And we all want one of those, don't we?
Another essay retained verbatim from 1962 is 'Voices from the Sky', about communications satellites. It's as spectacular a feat of prediction as you'll ever read. It more or less summarises the main technological features of our world. Clarke of course had a head start thinking about this topic, having invented the communications satellite in a paper published in the 1940s.
The remainder of the essays feel lightly revised, most overtly by the occasional mention of post-1960s technology like the Hubble Space Telescope. I haven't performed an exhaustive textual comparison to see exactly what differs between the three editions I own, but this 1999 edition feels more tinkered with than revised.
It's a shame Clarke didn't have the energy or desire to completely rewrite the book and create a new Profiles of the Future fully informed by 1990s knowledge. Instead it's closer to a well-curated museum piece than a living work of late 20th century speculation.
The essays were originally written for Playboy in 1961, and were then collected into the original 1962 version of this book. Clarke revised the book in 1973, 1982 and 1999. I read the 1982 version not long after it was published and found it stimulating. On reading the 1999 edition, I have been surprised to learn that some of my ideas for my own extreme-far-future sf novel were not my own thoughts, as I had thought, but ideas I'd forgotten I'd read in the 1982 edition of this book.
The 1999 edition is, according to the acknowledgements, a revision of the original 1962 edition; though a quick glance through my 1980s copy indicates that some of the revisions for that edition have found their way back into this one. Presumably Clarke had it on hand while creating this edition, and added again the bits he thought worthy.
It contains some very interesting thoughts. Clarke's famous 'laws' are spelled out in this book--number one has been politically corrected for this edition:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible (s)he is almost certainly right. When (s)he says it is impossible, (s)he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Law 2 seems a bit glib, but 1 and 3 have a lot going for them.
The core idea of the book is that, if we want it enough, we will develop any technology we can imagine, so long as its operation need not contradict the laws of physics. Many foolish statements regarding the impossibility of various imagined technologies--heavier-than-air flight and space flight, for instance--arose from the financial and engineering difficulties involved in developing such technologies. But we wanted those technologies enough to find a way.
From this premise Clarke makes some striking predictions, of which I mention only a few:
- It will some day be possible to travel anywhere on Earth virtually instantaneously. That's a technology we will always want and there's no natural law that says we can't.
- Slightly more controversially, he imagines that in the more distant future we may be able to travel anywhere in the universe virtually instantaneously, by travelling in directions other than the three we currently know of; the indisputable speed limit of the universe is applicable to the space-time we know of, but not necessarily to other kinds of space we may gain access to in future.
- He imagines that we will be able to observe the past in perfect detail, but not to travel there.
- And that we will be able to go virtually anywhere in the universe, except inside stars, and planets with molten cores.
Many of these statements no doubt seem absurd in our present world. But the present state of affairs is just an instant in time, and need not be representative of the millions of future years in which human beings might exist. These speculations may apply not to our own civilisation, but perhaps to our remote descendants in more ambitious and better run civilisations.
Clarke's subtitle and introduction state that his intention is to explore 'the limits of the possible': in other words, not to predict the future, but to determine what we could achieve if we wanted to. What we actually achieve depends on what we want, and that arises from cultural factors that are virtually impossible to predict. The essays are at their weakest and their strongest when he oversteps this scope, and makes specific predictions.
He has retained an essay from the original edition, with amusing new pre- and post-scripts, to illustrate his own point about the 'hazards of prophecy': the one where he predicts that the hovercraft will have replaced the wheeled automobile by about 2010. I enjoyed the postscript where he writes about how he put his money where his mouth was and bought a hovercraft, and discovered its limitations. The specifically hovercraft-oriented aspects of the essay are plainly wrong, but some of the ideas--the obsolescence of the highway, the challenge of conducting search and rescue operations in extreme locations, and the difficulty of maintaining private spaces when anyone can drive over a fence--would still be applicable if ever flying cars became popular. And we all want one of those, don't we?
Another essay retained verbatim from 1962 is 'Voices from the Sky', about communications satellites. It's as spectacular a feat of prediction as you'll ever read. It more or less summarises the main technological features of our world. Clarke of course had a head start thinking about this topic, having invented the communications satellite in a paper published in the 1940s.
The remainder of the essays feel lightly revised, most overtly by the occasional mention of post-1960s technology like the Hubble Space Telescope. I haven't performed an exhaustive textual comparison to see exactly what differs between the three editions I own, but this 1999 edition feels more tinkered with than revised.
It's a shame Clarke didn't have the energy or desire to completely rewrite the book and create a new Profiles of the Future fully informed by 1990s knowledge. Instead it's closer to a well-curated museum piece than a living work of late 20th century speculation.
lourens's review
4.0
Anyone who has an active interest in what the future holds, which is just about everyone, makes predictions, extrapolates trends and postulates about the world ahead. Often history is named as the prime resource, but maybe the predictions of history are just as valuable.
Profiles of the Future was written in 1961 by prominent science fiction author Arthur Clarke. This time came after a tumultuous few decades for science and technology (not to forget the world wars): Einstein's special relativity, nuclear bombs, the conquering of the air with airplanes (many thought flying to be impossible in the early 20th century) and the space race just starting to kick up dust.
It is fascinating to read Clarke's predictions. Some are eerily accurate, his thoughts on electric and autonomous cars have either been realized or are considered as near future (motor in the wheels, route-planning based on which roads are least busy, fleet driving with interconnected autonomous cars). He postulates the impact of global satellite radio, which if we take the liberty to apply to internet, has been one of the major developments of the last few decades: the accessible information would lead to:
Replace "channel" to "app" and that sounds a lot like on demand media to me. I can sum up a very long list of impressive predictions, but I should also include some misses. The biggest might be the chapter dedicated to G.E.M's (Ground Effect Machines, also known as Hovercraft). The vehicle to remove the distinction between sea and land, render roads redundant, make everything cheaper, safer, faster, has largely been a let down. Ah well, maybe the future holds some hovercraft adventures for us. Additionally, Clarke points out multiple times the looming overpopulation we will have to expect. Although less mouths on this earth would certainly help with feeding them sustainably, the demographic transition in developed countries seems to have addressed overpopulation as our existential threat in quite an elegant way.
Overall, if you can get your hands on this book I would recommend you browse through it. It helps putting today's prediction into perspective and above all, it is a very entertaining read.
Profiles of the Future was written in 1961 by prominent science fiction author Arthur Clarke. This time came after a tumultuous few decades for science and technology (not to forget the world wars): Einstein's special relativity, nuclear bombs, the conquering of the air with airplanes (many thought flying to be impossible in the early 20th century) and the space race just starting to kick up dust.
It is fascinating to read Clarke's predictions. Some are eerily accurate, his thoughts on electric and autonomous cars have either been realized or are considered as near future (motor in the wheels, route-planning based on which roads are least busy, fleet driving with interconnected autonomous cars). He postulates the impact of global satellite radio, which if we take the liberty to apply to internet, has been one of the major developments of the last few decades: the accessible information would lead to:
"Orbital newspapers ... Thus when you want your daily paper, you will switch to the appropriate channel, press the right button and collect the latest edition as it comes in. "
Replace "channel" to "app" and that sounds a lot like on demand media to me. I can sum up a very long list of impressive predictions, but I should also include some misses. The biggest might be the chapter dedicated to G.E.M's (Ground Effect Machines, also known as Hovercraft). The vehicle to remove the distinction between sea and land, render roads redundant, make everything cheaper, safer, faster, has largely been a let down. Ah well, maybe the future holds some hovercraft adventures for us. Additionally, Clarke points out multiple times the looming overpopulation we will have to expect. Although less mouths on this earth would certainly help with feeding them sustainably, the demographic transition in developed countries seems to have addressed overpopulation as our existential threat in quite an elegant way.
Overall, if you can get your hands on this book I would recommend you browse through it. It helps putting today's prediction into perspective and above all, it is a very entertaining read.
nwhyte's review
http://nwhyte.livejournal.com/1402031.html
Classic book of essays by Clarke, originally written in 1962 mostly for Playboy, and updated by him in 1999 - so the first edition was written when he was a little older than I am now, and the revision when he was 82; will I be reviewing old blog posts for republication in 2049? It is all good solid stuff about the future of technology and space flight, and the nature of the universe. One notable miss is that he doesn't seem to have been very worried about environmental concerns, at that stage anyway. One remarkable hit is the chapter "Voices from the Sky", where he looks at the coming revolution in worldwide communication and predicts global media, GPS, fax machines, teleconferencing and ebooks (and admits in an afterword that the biggest mistake of the essay is not realising how quickly it would happen). Anyway, it's yet another reminder of how Clarke shaped our world.
Classic book of essays by Clarke, originally written in 1962 mostly for Playboy, and updated by him in 1999 - so the first edition was written when he was a little older than I am now, and the revision when he was 82; will I be reviewing old blog posts for republication in 2049? It is all good solid stuff about the future of technology and space flight, and the nature of the universe. One notable miss is that he doesn't seem to have been very worried about environmental concerns, at that stage anyway. One remarkable hit is the chapter "Voices from the Sky", where he looks at the coming revolution in worldwide communication and predicts global media, GPS, fax machines, teleconferencing and ebooks (and admits in an afterword that the biggest mistake of the essay is not realising how quickly it would happen). Anyway, it's yet another reminder of how Clarke shaped our world.
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