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tamzy6's review against another edition
5.0
Love this book! It made me rethink my writing and communication styles. And that we should not always believe the numbers written in the important things that affect our lives, like medical reports (!!), until we've actually really looked and understood what the numbers mean.
My personal takeaways:
1. Use natural frequencies if possible
2. Find a simpler, not simple, solution to a problem
That said, I felt that the last 2 pages on digital literacy were a bit out of place as they weren't properly fleshed out.
My personal takeaways:
1. Use natural frequencies if possible
2. Find a simpler, not simple, solution to a problem
That said, I felt that the last 2 pages on digital literacy were a bit out of place as they weren't properly fleshed out.
oisin175's review against another edition
2.0
A high level discussion that tends to use substantially more words than are necessary to get the point across. Written like most business books where you get a kind of vague point, followed by an anecdote, and maybe a slightly better explanation of the point. My bigger issue is that Gigerenzer dismisses the idea put for by Kahneman, Tversky, and others without honestly engaging with them. Kahneman's and Tversky's idea, as identified in Thinking Fast and Slow does not say that intuition is always error ridden and that conscious thought is always logical and computational. They also do not laud the value of complex models, nor do they pretend their model applies universally. Mischaracterizing these arguments in order to dismiss them undermines Gigerenzer's credibility, especially when his actual statements seem to agree with various aspects of Kahneman and Tversky.
Gigerenzer's lauding of the value of intuition and rules of thumb is also problematic because he elides over the idea that intuition must be trained into a person. Intuition is useful in situations where a person has ample opportunity for feedback, in a repeatable environment, and lots of experience. Gigerenzer kind of hits this point, but then also lauds business intuition, which fails all of these ideas. In fact, studies of the very class of leaders that Gigerenzer lauds for there intuition fail to demonstrate benefits significantly above the mean.
All in all, this book has something interesting to say, but the message gets undermined by overreaching and gross mischaracterization of supposed opponents.
Gigerenzer's lauding of the value of intuition and rules of thumb is also problematic because he elides over the idea that intuition must be trained into a person. Intuition is useful in situations where a person has ample opportunity for feedback, in a repeatable environment, and lots of experience. Gigerenzer kind of hits this point, but then also lauds business intuition, which fails all of these ideas. In fact, studies of the very class of leaders that Gigerenzer lauds for there intuition fail to demonstrate benefits significantly above the mean.
All in all, this book has something interesting to say, but the message gets undermined by overreaching and gross mischaracterization of supposed opponents.
eatreadgamerepeat's review against another edition
3.0
I think this was an interesting read, but since I read his other book, Reckoning with Risk, earlier this year I didn't get as much from it as I thought I would. The author recycles a lot of his points and facts, so it didn't bring many new things as I thought it would.
wilte's review
5.0
Great book on decision making. Less is more when there is a lot of uncertainty; simple rules of thumb or frugal decision trees outperforme complex strategies.
Gigerenzer also cleary demonstrates more transparent and honest ways to show risk (percentages). With natural frequencies 4th graders can answer question doctors are stumped with with old ways of describing frequencies.
Only weka chapter was chapter on health/cancer risks (ch 10), 10 rules are given for better living without any numerical evidence. Flies against Gigerenzers conclusion that we don't need soft or hard paternalism, but -with the right tools and communication- can let everyone decide for himself. Invest in people. Laudable and on some aspects certainly doable. Too bad he heads his own advice in chapter 10.
Gigerenzer also cleary demonstrates more transparent and honest ways to show risk (percentages). With natural frequencies 4th graders can answer question doctors are stumped with with old ways of describing frequencies.
Only weka chapter was chapter on health/cancer risks (ch 10), 10 rules are given for better living without any numerical evidence. Flies against Gigerenzers conclusion that we don't need soft or hard paternalism, but -with the right tools and communication- can let everyone decide for himself. Invest in people. Laudable and on some aspects certainly doable. Too bad he heads his own advice in chapter 10.
andras's review
4.0
In general, I liked the overarching themes of the book like people should think for themselves, instead of blindly trusting experts and technology. Certainty is an illusion, and people must get comfortable with probabilistic thinking, natural frequencies are great, etc.
However, these themes were repetitive, and since the book was also short, I found the book to be quite fluffy, lacking content. There was only space for two areas where people have to deal with uncertainty: healthcare and finance. I'm pretty sure the author could have found more diverse examples. That said, the author offers some great advice on the kind of questions you need to ask when evaluating medical/financial options.
This is a great intro to counting with natural frequencies and most people would benefit from reading it. For a deep dive into taming uncertainty, I recommend Eliezer Yudkowsky's Rationality: From AI to Zombies.
However, these themes were repetitive, and since the book was also short, I found the book to be quite fluffy, lacking content. There was only space for two areas where people have to deal with uncertainty: healthcare and finance. I'm pretty sure the author could have found more diverse examples. That said, the author offers some great advice on the kind of questions you need to ask when evaluating medical/financial options.
This is a great intro to counting with natural frequencies and most people would benefit from reading it. For a deep dive into taming uncertainty, I recommend Eliezer Yudkowsky's Rationality: From AI to Zombies.
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